Following reports that the IMF is insisting on a hryvnia devaluation as part of negotiations for a new program worth roughly $8 billion (according to Bloomberg/Reuters estimates), the topic has entered the public domain. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) denies any “IMF-driven devaluation,” citing inflation and social risks. Yet the actual exchange-rate dynamics indicate a gradual adjustment: • On 1 October 2025, the official USD/UAH rate stood at ₴41.1420 (NBU).• On 20 Octo
Officially, this measure is temporary, until the first quarter of 2027. In practice — it is the third consecutive extension. For the state budget, it is a quick fix: according to estimates, the government will collect an additional UAH 15–23 billion in 2026. In wartime conditions, that looks tempting. The banking sector remains profitable — with over UAH 150 billion in net profit in 2024 — so the political logic is simple: “take it from those who have it.” From an economic st