NBU Fixes the Rate in the Zone of Imitation

The National Bank of Ukraine has kept its key policy rate at 15.5% per annum, citing a decline in inflation to 13.2% and the persistence of elevated inflation expectations.

At first glance, the decision appears to reflect monetary discipline. However, given the current price dynamics, a rate of 15.5% is no longer an effective anti-inflation anchor nor a real stimulus for lending. It plays more of a formal, signaling role, without having a tangible impact on domestic economic processes.

The regulator separately emphasized that since the beginning of 2025, Ukraine has received about $30 billion in external financing, which allowed international reserves to rise to $46 billion. Yet these indicators are entirely derivative of donor support rather than the result of domestic economic policy. Moreover, the NBU itself admits to systemic risks — potential irregularity of aid inflows, deepening migration trends, labor shortages, and a worsening external environment. This means that the resilience of reserves remains extremely fragile.

Thus, the rate is being maintained not as an instrument of internal stabilization but as a communication tool aimed at external partners. The NBU is signaling its commitment to tight monetary policy for donors, while refraining from steps that could structurally transform the economy.

The steps that are truly necessary:• Transition to a floating exchange rate regime, abandoning the illusion of stability;• Reinstatement of the “critical imports” regime — restricting all foreign purchases except those for defense and vital needs;• Take real steps to privatize state-owned banks, which continue to distort the market and block the development of competition.

The refusal to implement these measures is driven not by economic conditions but by the regulator’s political dependence. The NBU leadership, integrated into the President’s Office vertical, does not demonstrate — and cannot demonstrate — the ability to take autonomous decisions. As a result, the 15.5% rate becomes not an instrument of policy but a symbol of institutional weakness and political fear.